The immense computational power that quantum computing offers raises significant concerns, particularly around its potential to compromise private keys that secure digital interactions. Among the most pressing fears is its ability to break the private keys safeguarding cryptocurrency wallets.
While this threat is genuine, it is unlikely to materialize overnight. It is, however, crucial to examine the current state of quantum computing in terms of commercial capabilities and assess its potential to pose a real danger to cryptocurrency security.
Before delving into the risks, it’s essential to understand the basics of quantum computing. Unlike classical computers, which process information using bits (either 0 or 1), quantum computers rely on quantum bits, or qubits. Qubits leverage the principles of quantum mechanics to exist in multiple states simultaneously (0, 1, or both 0 and 1, thanks to the phenomenon of superposition).
One of the primary risks posed by quantum computing stems from Shor’s algorithm, which allows quantum computers to factor large integers exponentially faster than classical algorithms. The security of several cryptographic systems, including RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring large composite numbers. For instance, RSA-2048, a widely used cryptographic key size, underpins the private keys used to sign and authorize cryptocurrency transactions.
Breaking RSA-2048 with today’s classical computers, even using massive clusters of processors, would take billions of years. To illustrate, a successful attempt to crack RSA-768 (a 768-bit number) in 2009 required years of effort and hundreds of clustered machines. The computational difficulty grows exponentially with key size, making RSA-2048 virtually unbreakable within any human timescale—at least for now.
Commercial quantum computing offerings, such as IBM Q System One, Google Sycamore, Rigetti Aspen-9, and AWS Braket, are available today for those with the resources to use them. However, the number of qubits these systems offer remains limited — typically only a few dozen. This is far from sufficient to break even moderately sized cryptographic keys within any realistic timeframe. Breaking RSA-2048 would require millions of years with current quantum systems.
Beyond insufficient qubit capacity, today’s quantum computers face challenges in qubit stability, error correction, and scalability. Additionally, their operation depends on extreme conditions. Qubits are highly sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances, necessitating cryogenic temperatures and advanced magnetic shielding for stability.
Unlike classical computing, quantum computing lacks a clear equivalent of Moore’s Law to predict how quickly its power will grow. Google’s Hartmut Neven proposed a “Neven’s Law” suggesting double-exponential growth in quantum computing power, but this model has yet to consistently hold up in practice beyond research and development milestones.
Hypothetically, achieving double-exponential growth to reach the approximately 20 million physical qubits needed to crack RSA-2048 could take another four years. However, this projection assumes breakthroughs in addressing error correction, qubit stability, and scalability—all formidable challenges in their own right.
While quantum computing poses a theoretical threat to cryptocurrency and other cryptographic systems, significant technical hurdles must be overcome before it becomes a tangible risk. Current commercial offerings remain far from capable of cracking RSA-2048 or similar key sizes. However, as research progresses, it is crucial for industries reliant on cryptographic security to explore quantum-resistant algorithms to stay ahead of potential threats.
Based on dozens of cyberattacks and thefts this year, hackers stole over $2 billion in cryptocurrency, according to De.FI, the web3 security company that manages the REKT database.
The site ranks the worst-ever crypto hacks, ranging from the Ronin network breach in 2022—the largest event in history—where hackers took over $600 million in cryptocurrency—to this year's hack against Mixin Network, which brought in almost $200 million for the criminals.
DeFi, in its report, wrote, “This amount, though dispersed across various incidents, underscores the persistent vulnerabilities and challenges within the DeFi ecosystem[…]2023 stood as a testament to both the ongoing vulnerabilities and the strides made in addressing them, even as interest in the space was relatively muted by the ongoing bear market in the first half of the year.”
In an estimate, published by blockchain intelligence firm TRM, the total amount of cryptocurrency that hackers have stolen this year was also made public earlier in December. As of mid-December, the business reported that the total amounted to around $1.7 billion.
Among the other crypto thefts conducted this year, one of the worst ones was a hack against Euler Fianance, where threat actors stole $200 million. Other notable hacks include those against Multichain ($126 million), BonqDAO ($120 million), Poloniex ($114 million), and Atomic Wallet ($100 million), among hundreds of other targets.
Last year, blockchain monitoring firm Chainalysis reported that cybercriminals purloined a record-breaking $3.8 billion in cryptocurrency. Of those, the Lazarus Group, a group of North Korean government hackers who are among the most active in the cryptocurrency space, took $1.7 billion in an attempt to finance the regime's authorized nuclear weapons program.
In 2021, Chainalysis reported hacks that compromised crypto worth $3.3 billion.
It is rather not possible to predict what the figures will be in 2024, but given the failures witnessed in cyber security by several crypto and web3 initiatives, as well as the significant financial potential of both sectors—discussed at TechCrunch Disrupt earlier this year—we should anticipate that hackers will continue to target this expanding market.
Customers of prominent cryptocurrency companies FTX, BlockFi, and Genesis had their financial and personal information exposed in a recent cybersecurity breach. Concerns have been expressed about the security of private information in the cryptocurrency sector as a result of the hack.
The breach, according to claims from sources, was carried out by taking advantage of flaws in the systems of Kroll, a reputable data management business. The personal information of innumerable users is now in danger due to Kroll's involvement in processing the client data of these cryptocurrency companies.
FTX, BlockFi, and Genesis being prominent names in the cryptocurrency sector, have a significant user base that relies on their platforms for trading, lending, and other financial services. The compromised data includes user names, email addresses, phone numbers, transaction histories, and potentially even account passwords. This sensitive information falling into the wrong hands could lead to identity theft, phishing attacks, and financial fraud.
The incident raises questions about the industry's overall data security practices. While the cryptocurrency market has been praised for its decentralized nature and robust encryption, this breach underscores the persistent vulnerabilities that exist in digital systems. Companies dealing with such high-value assets and sensitive data must prioritize cybersecurity measures to prevent such incidents.