The immense computational power that quantum computing offers raises significant concerns, particularly around its potential to compromise private keys that secure digital interactions. Among the most pressing fears is its ability to break the private keys safeguarding cryptocurrency wallets.
While this threat is genuine, it is unlikely to materialize overnight. It is, however, crucial to examine the current state of quantum computing in terms of commercial capabilities and assess its potential to pose a real danger to cryptocurrency security.
Before delving into the risks, it’s essential to understand the basics of quantum computing. Unlike classical computers, which process information using bits (either 0 or 1), quantum computers rely on quantum bits, or qubits. Qubits leverage the principles of quantum mechanics to exist in multiple states simultaneously (0, 1, or both 0 and 1, thanks to the phenomenon of superposition).
One of the primary risks posed by quantum computing stems from Shor’s algorithm, which allows quantum computers to factor large integers exponentially faster than classical algorithms. The security of several cryptographic systems, including RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring large composite numbers. For instance, RSA-2048, a widely used cryptographic key size, underpins the private keys used to sign and authorize cryptocurrency transactions.
Breaking RSA-2048 with today’s classical computers, even using massive clusters of processors, would take billions of years. To illustrate, a successful attempt to crack RSA-768 (a 768-bit number) in 2009 required years of effort and hundreds of clustered machines. The computational difficulty grows exponentially with key size, making RSA-2048 virtually unbreakable within any human timescale—at least for now.
Commercial quantum computing offerings, such as IBM Q System One, Google Sycamore, Rigetti Aspen-9, and AWS Braket, are available today for those with the resources to use them. However, the number of qubits these systems offer remains limited — typically only a few dozen. This is far from sufficient to break even moderately sized cryptographic keys within any realistic timeframe. Breaking RSA-2048 would require millions of years with current quantum systems.
Beyond insufficient qubit capacity, today’s quantum computers face challenges in qubit stability, error correction, and scalability. Additionally, their operation depends on extreme conditions. Qubits are highly sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances, necessitating cryogenic temperatures and advanced magnetic shielding for stability.
Unlike classical computing, quantum computing lacks a clear equivalent of Moore’s Law to predict how quickly its power will grow. Google’s Hartmut Neven proposed a “Neven’s Law” suggesting double-exponential growth in quantum computing power, but this model has yet to consistently hold up in practice beyond research and development milestones.
Hypothetically, achieving double-exponential growth to reach the approximately 20 million physical qubits needed to crack RSA-2048 could take another four years. However, this projection assumes breakthroughs in addressing error correction, qubit stability, and scalability—all formidable challenges in their own right.
While quantum computing poses a theoretical threat to cryptocurrency and other cryptographic systems, significant technical hurdles must be overcome before it becomes a tangible risk. Current commercial offerings remain far from capable of cracking RSA-2048 or similar key sizes. However, as research progresses, it is crucial for industries reliant on cryptographic security to explore quantum-resistant algorithms to stay ahead of potential threats.
Asia-Pacific (APAC) enters 2025 with serious cybersecurity concerns as new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing are now posing more complex threats. Businesses and governments in the region are under increased pressure to build stronger defenses against these rapidly evolving risks.
How AI is Changing Cyberattacks
AI is now a primary weapon for cybercriminals, who can now develop more complex attacks. One such alarming example is the emergence of deepfake technology. Deepfakes are realistic but fake audio or video clips that can mislead people or organizations. Recently, deepfakes were used in political disinformation campaigns during elections in countries such as India and Indonesia. In Hong Kong, cybercriminals used deepfake technology to impersonate individuals and steal $25 million from a company. Audio-based deepfakes, and in particular, voice-cloning scams, will likely be used much more by hackers. It means that companies and individuals can be scammed with fake voice recordings, which would increase when this technology gets cheaper and becomes widely available. As described by Simon Green, the cybersecurity leader, this situation represents a "perfect storm" of AI-driven threats in APAC.
The Quantum Computing Threat
Even in its infancy, quantum computing threatens future data security. One of the most pressing is a strategy called "harvest now, decrypt later." Attackers will harvest encrypted data now, planning to decrypt it later when quantum technology advances enough to break current encryption methods.
The APAC region is moving at the edge of quantum technology development. Places like India, Singapore, etc., and international giants like IBM and Microsoft continue to invest so much in such technology. Their advancement is reassuring but also alarms people about having sensitive information safer. Experts speak about the issue of quantum resistant encryption to fend off future threat risks.
With more and more companies embracing AI-powered tools such as Microsoft Copilot, the emphasis on data security is becoming crucial. Companies have now shifted to better management of their data along with compliance in new regulations in order to successfully integrate AI within their operations. According to a data expert Max McNamara, robust security measures are imperative to unlock full potential of AI without compromising the privacy or safety.
To better address the intricate nature of contemporary cyberattacks, many cybersecurity experts suggest unified security platforms. Integrated systems combine and utilize various instruments and approaches used to detect threats and prevent further attacks while curtailing costs as well as minimizing inefficiencies.
The APAC region is now at a critical point for cybersecurity as threats are administered more minutely. Businesses and governments can be better prepared for the challenges of 2025 by embracing advanced defenses and having the foresight of technological developments.
Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, has raised alarms over Bitcoin’s future security, cautioning that its SHA-256 encryption may become vulnerable within the next two to five years. Speaking on the All-In Podcast, he highlighted rapid advancements in quantum computing, particularly Google’s unveiling of the Willow quantum chip featuring 105 qubits. Palihapitiya estimates that 8,000 such chips could potentially breach SHA-256 encryption, underscoring the pressing need for blockchain networks to adapt.
While acknowledging the infancy of quantum computing, Palihapitiya pointed to Google’s Willow chip as a pivotal development that could accelerate breakthroughs in cryptography. Despite scalability challenges, he remains optimistic that the cryptocurrency sector will evolve to develop quantum-resistant encryption methods.
Not all experts share his concerns, however. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, has expressed confidence that Bitcoin’s encryption is unlikely to face quantum threats within this decade.
Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, had anticipated such scenarios. In 2010, Satoshi proposed that the Bitcoin community could agree on the last valid blockchain snapshot and transition to a new cryptographic framework if SHA-256 were compromised. However, these early solutions are not without controversy.
Emin Gün Sirer, founder of Avalanche, has warned that some of Satoshi’s early-mined coins used an outdated Pay-To-Public-Key (P2PK) format, which exposes public keys and increases the risk of exploitation. Sirer suggested the Bitcoin community should consider freezing these coins or setting a sunset date for outdated transactions to mitigate risks.
Recent advancements in quantum computing, including Google’s Willow chip, briefly unsettled the cryptocurrency market. A sudden wave of liquidations resulted in $1.6 billion being wiped out within 24 hours. However, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, reclaiming the $100,000 resistance level and achieving a 4.6% weekly gain.
Experts widely agree that proactive steps, such as transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic frameworks, will be essential for ensuring Bitcoin’s long-term security. As the quantum era approaches, collaboration and innovation within the cryptocurrency community will be pivotal in maintaining its robustness against emerging threats.
The ongoing advancements in quantum computing present both challenges and opportunities. While they highlight vulnerabilities in existing systems, they also drive the cryptocurrency sector toward innovative solutions that will likely define the next chapter in its evolution.
The cryptocurrency market reached a historic milestone this week as Bitcoin closed above $100,000 for the first time in history. This marks a defining moment, reflecting both market optimism and growing investor confidence. Despite reaching a peak of $104,000, Bitcoin experienced significant price volatility, dropping as low as $92,000 before stabilizing at $101,200 by the end of the week. These sharp fluctuations resulted in a massive liquidation of $1.8 billion, primarily from traders holding long positions.
In a major development, BlackRock's IBIT ETF purchased $398.6 million worth of Bitcoin on December 9. This acquisition propelled the fund's total assets under management to over $50 billion, setting a record as the fastest-growing ETF to reach this milestone in just 230 days. BlackRock's aggressive investment underscores the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a mainstream financial asset.
Ripple made headlines this week with the approval of its RLUSD stablecoin by the New York Department of Financial Services. Designed for institutional use, the stablecoin will initially be launched on both Ripple's XRPL network and Ethereum. Analysts suggest this development could bolster Ripple's market standing, especially as rumors circulate about potential future partnerships, including discussions with Cardano's founder.
El Salvador created a buzz after announcing the discovery of $3 trillion worth of unmined gold. This announcement comes as the country negotiates with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding its Bitcoin law. Reports indicate that El Salvador may make Bitcoin usage optional for merchants as part of an agreement to secure financial aid. This discovery adds an intriguing dimension to the nation’s economic strategy as it continues to embrace cryptocurrency alongside traditional resources.
Google showcased advancements in its quantum computing technology with its Willow chip, a quantum processor capable of solving problems exponentially faster than traditional supercomputers. While concerns have been raised about the potential impact on Bitcoin's security, experts confirm there is no immediate threat. Bitcoin's encryption, based on CDSA-256 and SHA-256, remains robust. With Willow currently at 105 qubits, it would take quantum technology reaching millions of qubits to penetrate Bitcoin's encryption methods effectively.
Bitcoin's surge past $100,000 is undoubtedly a significant achievement, but analysts predict a short-term consolidation phase. Experts anticipate sideways price action as traders and investors take profits before year-end. Meanwhile, Ethereum experienced a 10% decline this week, reflecting broader market adjustments amid declining trading volumes.
The crypto space continues to evolve rapidly, with milestones and challenges shaping the future of digital assets. While optimism surrounds Bitcoin’s rise, vigilance remains essential as market dynamics unfold.